Covid19 confirmed cases.

Interactive Map: Activate Sonora, Mexico, USA or World layer below, to display data accordingly

Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data. World and USA data compiled by Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. Novel Corona Virus 2019 Dataset.Note: Daily Updated data.

Latin American Countries

Source: Own estimation with data set compiled by Gabriel Alfonso Carranco-Sapiéns, Physics Institute of the National Autonomous Univesity of Mexico (UNAM) based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data.

Brazil is the more affected country in the Latin American region by April 10th. Triplicating the number of cases that its predecessor Chile reports. What kind of measures are these countries implementing? Are this countries appliying the same preventive controls? such as social distancing, border closings, mobillity restictions? The different control approaches may provide clues to better undestend the virus spread rate.

While, absolute measures show important patterns, the only provide one side of the contagion process. We need relative inicators to control for population size in each area.

Northern Border States

Source: Own estimation based on oficial Mexican Government data Dirección General de Epidemiología. Compiled by Gabriel Alfonso Carranco-Sapiéns, Physics Institute of the National Autonomous Univesity of Mexico (UNAM).

The covid19 confirmed cases path for the border states is showing a clear indication of different results of local containment measures for the spread of the virus. While, during the initial outbreak, Nuevo León (a state that host Monterrey, the third largest Metropolitan area in the country) had been the main focus of contagion at the border, the pattern dramatically changed by April 5th, when Baja California take off.

What kind of measures are working in Nuevo León, a state that appears to have flatten the curve, what lessons can be learned from this state´s public health control efforts. And more importantly, what factors are driving Baja California as a rapid growth area.

Southern Border States

Source: Own estimation based on oficial Mexican Government data Dirección General de Epidemiología. Compiled by Gabriel Alfonso Carranco-Sapiéns, Physics Institute of the National Autonomous Univesity of Mexico (UNAM).

The 100th cases threshold.

Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data. Data set compiled by Gabriel Alfonso Carranco-Sapiéns, Physics Institute of the National Autonomous Univesity of Mexico (UNAM).

Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data. Data set compiled by Gabriel Alfonso Carranco-Sapiéns, Physics Institute of the National Autonomous Univesity of Mexico (UNAM).

Baja California was the first border state to reach the 100th case threshold, which occurred on April 06 2020.
Two days latter, the number of cases has doubled to 225.

While at the southern border, Quintana Roo has become a clear focus of attention. Tabasco and Campeche are showing the greatest spread rates at the regional level already reaching the 100th case threshold since April, 6th, 2020.

Are there any significant differences between patient´s age distribution between states?

The patient mean age is 45 years old, although no significant diferences across gender are found at this moment 2020-04-08, with an average age of 45 years for the Female population and 46 for Males.

We find that more Males than females are being infected. 1035 Females while 1396 Males are reported since the first case was documented in the country.

Given the highly infectious nature of the virus and the labor market dynamics, a social determinant linked to a greater mobility for males, provides a research area that requires a formal empirical validation.

Despite that on average we find that the state with the youngest covid19 infected patients is Quintana Roo with a mean age of 36 years old, while Nayarit shows the oldest average patient’s age with 62 years old.

The t test estimation demostrates that there are statistical significant differences across some states averge patient age, including Quintana Roo and Nayarit.

What can be learned from Lethality rates at the state level?

Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data. Data set compiled by Gabriel Alfonso Carranco-Sapiéns, Physics Institute of the National Autonomous Univesity of Mexico (UNAM).